Break-even · illustrative
Operating break-even in Year 2.
Under the current inputs, Year 1 operating net is -$40,000 and cumulative cash stays positive from Year 3. Adjust inputs on the model page; this view updates.
| Year | Revenue | Costs | of which marketing | Operating net | Phased capital expenditure (reference) | Lead pledge tranche (placeholder) | Cumulative cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | $500K | $540K | $50K | -$40K | $2.45M | $1.50M | -$990K |
| Y2 | $1.73M | $1.28M | $173K | $448K | $1.68M | $1.50M | -$722K |
| Y3 | $2.72M | $1.98M | $272K | $741K | $1.16M | $1.50M | $359K |
| Y4 | $3.67M | $2.54M | $367K | $1.13M | $0 | $1.50M | $2.99M |
| Y5 | $4.98M | $3.28M | $498K | $1.70M | $3.74M | $1.50M | $2.45M |
Highlighted rows have a non-negative operating net. Cumulative cash = gifts + operating net - capital, summed.
Sensitivity
One lever at a time, all else equal under the selected scenario.
| Lever | Break-even year | Y2 net | Y5 net | 5-yr operating net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline Current inputs and scenario. | Y2 | $448K | $1.70M | $3.98M |
Revenue -25% Every earned and contributed line under-delivers by a quarter. | Y2 | $59K | $582K | $920K |
Revenue -10% Modest shortfall across all lines. | Y2 | $293K | $1.25M | $2.76M |
Revenue +10% Modest outperformance across all lines. | Y1 | $604K | $2.15M | $5.20M |
Costs +15% Wage, vendor or space costs run hotter than planned. | Y2 | $282K | $1.29M | $2.74M |
Costs -10% Volunteer leverage or shared services reduce costs. | Y1 | $559K | $1.98M | $4.81M |
Marketing +4 pts Heavier launch marketing as a share of revenue. | Y2 | $379K | $1.50M | $3.44M |
Marketing -4 pts Lean, owned-channel-first marketing. | Y2 | $518K | $1.90M | $4.52M |
Scenario math, not a forecast